The resignation of Carlos Urzúa from the Ministry of Finance was a bomb that built the foundations of the lopezobradorist government. A long list of recognized officials (although of lower hierarchical level and importance within the cabinet), who have left this administration, among which are Patricia Burgarin to the SSPC, Simón Levy to Sectur and Germán Martínez to the IMSS.
The professor of the Tec de Monterrey Government School today decided to make public his disagreements with the decisions, in economic matters, of the President and signaled Alfonso Romo to have clear conflicts of interest. In short, Urzúa was more a piece of ornaments than a secretary of state in charge of the country’s finances. The economic decisions, apparently, are made in the National Palace and are operated by Margarita Ríos-Farjat in the SAT and Raquel Buenrostro in the Treasury. Similarly, Rocío Nahle does not question Pemex’s business plans or Manuel Bartlett the administration of the CFE, with which Urzúa did not agree . The 4T has not taken long to denounce Urzúa himself .
The signs, indicating that the lopezobradorista government is making a mistake in its management of the economy, are there, in view of all, in international communications media, in reports of the main financial organizations and in the communications of the Bank of Mexico itself. We are on the way to a recession. It will not matter that the presidency has “other data”, a recession – recognized or not by the government – will affect the economy of the poorest and will be aggravated if the government continues on the path of a misunderstood austerity. The government itself is stopping the economy by not exercising public spending and giving preference to money transfers, such as social programs. Even worse is that large infrastructure projects will generate long-term liabilities and non-assets.
Who could make the President reconsider the economic direction? The only moderate in the cabinet, whom the President could hear, is Marcelo Ebrard . However, his goal is set in 2024, in the presidential succession, so it is very naive to think that he will put himself in a confrontational position with López Obrador . Without Obrador on his part, he could not aspire to the candidacy of Morena. So he will save his battles.
Security conditions were the cause of the PAN losing the presidency in 2012; and corruption, that the PRI had no opportunity in 2018. Not rectifying the path or knowing how to measure the pulse of the electorate has condemned the parties in power not to retain the presidency. If Morena wants to keep the presidency in 2024, she has to govern well, from the beginning, and rectify the economic policies of her government, for her own good, but mainly for the good of the country. That, assuming that there will be elections in 2024, even against the wishes of the president of Morena, Yeidckol Polevnsky , who – apparently – has no sympathy for holding elections.
Ricardo Solano Olivera, MSc.
Column originally published at https://laopinion.de/2019/07/17/rectificaran-el-rumbo-economico/.