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HOW DOES TERRORISM IMPACT THE GLOBAL ECONOMY?

The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights points out that terrorism is understood to mean acts of violence directed against civilians while pursuing political or ideological objectives. Among the most shocking terrorist attacks related to Islamic extremism in the twenty-first century we can mention the attacks in New York (2001), Madrid (2004), London (2005), Paris (2015) and Brussels (2016).

The first attacks were claimed by Al-Qaeda, while the last two were carried out by Daesh . This group proclaimed itself Islamic State in 2014, when it announced the creation of the Islamic Caliphate of Iraq and Syria. Several factors contributed to the emergence and positioning of this group: the instability in Iraq following the war with the United States, which dismantled the Iraqi security forces, and the emergence of a civil war in Syria.

Daesh was characterized by disturbing the West through the publication videos where members of the group beheaded citizens of their countries, including journalists, soldiers and activists. It is considered by the United Nations responsible for abuses and violations of human rights and war crimes. Despite this, the emergence of Daesh mixes the interests of different actors in the region. On the one hand, this group identifies with the Sunni wing of Islam, aligning its struggle with that of Saudi Arabia against the Iranian Shia. Both the Saudis and the Iranians fight to maintain and expand their area of ​​influence in the Middle East. Likewise, Turkey and other peripheral countries have benefited from the illegal trade in oil, source of Daesh resources        , since they controlled the oil wells of the regions of Syria and Iraq that were under their control.

According to the Institute  for Economics & Peace , during 2018, terrorism had an impact of 10% on world GDP. In this sense, the losses in Iraq amounted to 24% of its GDP, placing it as the most affected country. Iraq is followed by Afghanistan, with losses of around 13% of its GDP, and third is Syria, with 6% of its GDP affected.

The impact of terrorism on the economy becomes more evident in developing countries. However, it affects both local markets and international markets because it creates uncertainty and, as a general rule, markets are adverse to uncertainty. Thus, foreign investment tends to be reduced in emerging countries affected by terrorism. Likewise, these attacks generate inflationary pressures, increasing the prices of consumables and raw materials, negatively impacting both exports and imports. On the other hand, globalization accentuates the affectations; for example, following the rise of Daesh ,    The oil market suffered speculation, which led to the increase in the price of oil for more than five consecutive months. In this sense, Daesh has been the terrorist group with the most economic resources in history, reaching an income of approximately 2 million euros a day thanks to illicit oil traffic, not to mention organ trafficking, kidnapping, robbery and trafficking. of archaeological pieces.

While it is true that the democratic forces of Syria, its allies and Russia have managed to recover the cities where Daesh maintained its operations centers, thereby reducing and significantly reducing its resources, the truth is that the ideology behind the terrorist group is not It has expired. That is what makes it dangerous that -for example- the United States has decided to withdraw its troops from Syria due to the supposed expiration of Daesh . It is very difficult to “win” an ideology and there is always the possibility that this group will regroup because the region is still vulnerable due to the instability that reigns in Iraq and in Syria. However, although the group has weakened, the lone wolves        they are the main threat to national security and those who can keep the ideology and goals of Daesh alive .

 

Do you need information about the consequences that terrorism can have for your company? Write to info@riesgospoliticos.com.mx to give you the advice you require.

 

Photo by aladdin hammami on Unsplash

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